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The White House Pivot: Washington's Shift from Arming Kyiv to Brokering a Frozen Conflict

The Mirage of Peace in Gaza's Second Act

Saturday, 18 October 2025 19:02

Abstract

A high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded with a decisive turn in American policy, moving away from the potential supply of long-range Tomahawk missiles and towards an immediate, brokered peace. The decision, which followed a lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, saw President Trump urge both warring nations to 'stop where they are' and 'Let both claim Victory,' signalling a new, uncertain phase for the conflict and for Kyiv's military leverage.

Historical Context

Recent Findings

The White House Refusal

The meeting between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday, 17 October 20253,4,5, was intended to be a crucial moment for Ukraine’s military prospects. Kyiv had been lobbying Washington for weeks3 to secure the transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles, a weapon Ukrainian officials considered a potential ‘game-changer’15. However, the talks ended not with a commitment to new, powerful weaponry, but with a public call for an immediate cessation of hostilities6. President Trump suggested that providing the Tomahawk missiles would be premature3, stating that he hoped to secure peace with Russia first3. Speaking to journalists during the meeting, the US President expressed his preference: “Hopefully we’ll be able to get the war over with without thinking about Tomahawks”3,5. He also voiced reservations about depleting the American arsenal, noting, “We want Tomahawks, also. We don’t want to be giving away things that we need to protect our country”4,6. The shift in tone was stark, moving from a previous suggestion by the President that he might send the missiles if the war was not settled4,15, to a clear reluctance to do so5. Following the talks, President Trump took to social media, posting on Truth Social that it was “time to stop the killing, and make a DEAL!”6,14. He proposed a freeze on the conflict along the current battle lines, writing: “They should stop where they are. Let both claim Victory, let History decide!”4,6,7,14. This statement, which implied Ukraine would have to concede territory currently held by Russian forces6, immediately reframed the US position from a guarantor of military support to an active, and potentially coercive, mediator6,10.

The Long-Range Calculus

The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) is a long-range, guided cruise missile9 that has been a central request from Kyiv for months17. The weapon, first used in combat in 19919, is designed for deep-strike missions9. Modern conventional variants of the missile possess an operational range of approximately 995 miles, or 1,600 kilometres9,12. This range is significantly greater than the 190 miles (300 kilometres) offered by the US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)9,12,13, which was previously supplied to Ukraine12. The Tomahawk’s capability to fly low to the ground at high subsonic speeds9,13 makes it particularly difficult for Russian air defence systems to detect and intercept12,13. Ukrainian military planners argued that the missiles would allow them to strike hundreds of Russian military targets9 deep inside Russian territory9,12,13. These targets include critical military bases, logistics hubs, airfields, and command centres9,15 that have remained largely safe from Ukrainian long-range attacks9. The Institute for the Study of War estimated that a substantial number of Russian military locations would fall within the Tomahawk’s strike radius9. For Kyiv, the acquisition of the Tomahawk was not merely about battlefield advantage; it was a strategic tool intended to compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to take negotiations seriously9,17. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was frank about the necessity, telling President Trump, “We have drones. We don’t have Tomahawks. That’s why we need them”6,12. The missiles, which cost an estimated $1.3 million (£1 million) each9, are typically launched from ships and submarines9. However, a land-launched variant, the Typhon, is available, though the launchers are in short supply9,13. The debate over the Tomahawk supply had already forced Moscow into dialogue with Washington6, demonstrating the weapon’s diplomatic leverage even before its potential deployment6.

The Kremlin's Diplomatic Counter-Move

The White House meeting on Friday, 17 October3, was immediately preceded by a lengthy phone call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, 16 October5,10,18. The two leaders spoke for approximately two-and-a-half hours18,20. This conversation, the eighth known call between the two men since President Trump’s return to office in January6, was initiated by the Russian leader6. During the call, President Putin reportedly warned his American counterpart against supplying the Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv6,8,10,19. According to Yuri Ushakov, a Russian foreign-policy advisor, President Putin stated that the transfer of the long-range weapons would not alter the situation on the battlefield8,10 but would instead inflict “substantial damage to the relationship between our countries”6,8,10. The Russian President’s intervention appeared to have an immediate and profound effect on the US position10. Up until the call, President Trump had been publicly suggesting he was seriously considering the transfer of the missiles5,13. Following the conversation, however, the US President’s tone shifted dramatically, moving away from military escalation and towards a diplomatic resolution10. The call also resulted in an agreement for a new, high-level summit between the two leaders4,18. President Trump announced that he and President Putin would meet in Budapest, Hungary, within the next two weeks14,18,20 to discuss ways to end the conflict5,18. The announcement of the summit, which was a significant diplomatic win for Moscow10, was made while President Zelenskyy was en route to Washington8. The sequence of events—a warning from Moscow, a shift in US policy, and the immediate scheduling of a bilateral summit—suggested that President Putin had successfully used the threat of escalation to steer the US President toward a peace-brokering role favourable to the Kremlin10.

The Budapest Peace Track

The choice of Budapest, the capital of Hungary, as the venue for the upcoming Trump-Putin summit was a notable diplomatic development18,20. Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, is a close political ally of President Trump11,21 and one of the few European leaders who has maintained close ties with President Putin since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 202211. President Trump explained the choice of venue by praising Hungary and its Prime Minister, stating that both he and President Putin “like Viktor Orbán”21. He described Hungary as a “safe country” and suggested that Mr Orbán would be a “very good host”21. Mr Orbán, a nationalist leader whom the European Union has accused of turning Hungary into an autocracy11, enthusiastically welcomed the announcement11. He hailed the planned meeting as “great news for the peace-loving people of the world”11 and declared on social media that Hungary was an “island of PEACE!”11,19. The Kremlin confirmed the plans for the meeting19, with President Putin detailing the content of his phone call with President Trump to Mr Orbán20. The two leaders agreed that their representatives, led on the US side by Secretary of State Marco Rubio5,18, would hold initial high-level meetings the following week18,20. The proposed summit, which President Trump suggested could take place within two weeks18, represents a significant diplomatic opportunity for Moscow, which has consistently sought to engage directly with Washington while bypassing Kyiv10. The question of whether President Zelenskyy would be involved in the Budapest talks remained open, with President Trump suggesting a “double meeting” with the leaders of the warring countries was the most workable option5.

Kyiv's New Reality

For President Zelenskyy, the outcome of the White House meeting presented a new and difficult reality8. The Ukrainian President had arrived in Washington with the primary objective of securing the Tomahawk missiles8,14, which he believed were essential for a successful offensive against Russian targets7. His attempt to sweeten the deal by offering a trade—advanced Ukrainian drones in exchange for the US cruise missiles—was met with a non-committal response from President Trump4,5. President Trump acknowledged that Ukraine makes a “very good drone”4 but remained hesitant to commit to the Tomahawk transfer5. Following the meeting, President Zelenskyy adopted a measured public stance, telling reporters that he was “realistic” about the chances of securing the missiles7. He noted that the US President had not said ‘no’ to the request, but had not said ‘yes’ either7. The Ukrainian leader also stressed the necessity of strong security guarantees from the United States14. He expressed the fear that a ceasefire without such guarantees would simply allow President Putin to ‘come again with aggression’14. Despite the setback on the weapons front, President Zelenskyy maintained that he was counting on President Trump to pressure President Putin to halt the invasion14. He also appeared to endorse the US President’s call for a ceasefire, stating that President Trump was right that the combatants should ‘stop where we are, and then to speak’7. This statement, however, was made before he had seen the full social media post in which President Trump called for both sides to ‘claim Victory’7. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, attempted to frame the diplomatic flurry as a positive development, writing on X that the mere discussion of Tomahawk missiles had already forced President Putin back into dialogue with America6. The conclusion, he argued, was that ‘Strength can truly create momentum for peace’6.

Anxious Allies and the European Front

The shift in US policy and the announcement of the Budapest summit were met with anxiety across Europe8. The prospect of a US-brokered peace deal, negotiated directly with Moscow and potentially without Kyiv’s full consent, raised concerns among NATO allies8. European leaders, who have been the primary providers of military and financial aid to Ukraine alongside the United States, fear that a peace deal based on the current battle lines would reward Russian aggression and undermine the principle of territorial integrity6,8. Following his meeting with President Trump, President Zelenskyy held a ‘productive’ phone call with European leaders7. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was among those who spoke with the Ukrainian President7. The European leaders reaffirmed their support for Kyiv8 and agreed to continue working on a peace plan for Ukraine8. They also discussed options for increasing pressure on Moscow, including through sanctions and the use of frozen Russian state assets8. The European position remains focused on a peace that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty8, a stance that appears to be at odds with President Trump’s call for a ‘stop where they are’ ceasefire14. The selection of Hungary as the summit venue further exacerbated European concerns11. Mr Orbán’s government has consistently opposed EU sanctions on Russia and has been accused of undermining the bloc’s unified stance on the war11. His enthusiastic embrace of the Trump-Putin meeting underscored the deep divisions within the Western alliance regarding the path to ending the conflict16. The upcoming summit, therefore, is viewed not just as a negotiation between Washington and Moscow, but as a critical test of the cohesion and resolve of the entire Western coalition8.

Conclusion

The White House meeting on 17 October 20253 marked a definitive turning point in the United States’ approach to the war in Ukraine. The refusal to commit to the long-range Tomahawk missiles3,5, coupled with the immediate announcement of a summit with President Putin in Budapest4,18, signalled a clear shift in US priorities10. Washington’s policy has moved from one of military escalation, aimed at strengthening Kyiv’s hand on the battlefield, to one of diplomatic coercion, focused on brokering an immediate ceasefire along the existing front lines6,14. This new posture, encapsulated by President Trump’s call for both sides to ‘claim Victory’4, places immense pressure on President Zelenskyy to accept a peace deal that would likely involve territorial concessions6. While Kyiv attempts to leverage the diplomatic momentum to secure essential security guarantees14, the prospect of a US-Russia summit in a Moscow-friendly capital like Budapest11,21 has created profound uncertainty for Ukraine and its European allies8. The focus has now irrevocably shifted from the delivery of powerful weapons to the negotiation of a frozen conflict, the terms of which will be determined by the diplomatic interplay between Washington and Moscow10.

References

  1. Current time information in Добровеличківський район, UA.

    Provides current time information for a location in Ukraine, used for context.

  2. Current time information in Dabasi, HU.

    Provides current time information for a location in Hungary, used for context.

  3. Trump suggests too soon for Tomahawk missiles in talks with Zelenskyy - The Hindu

    Confirms the date of the meeting (October 17, 2025), Trump's statement about Tomahawks being premature, and Ukraine's lobbying for the missiles.

  4. Trump says both Ukraine and Russia should declare victory after meeting with Zelenskyy: "Let history decide!" - CBS News

    Provides Trump's quote about both sides declaring victory, his Truth Social post, his reluctance to give away Tomahawks, Zelenskyy's drone-for-Tomahawk trade suggestion, and the agreement not to discuss escalation publicly.

  5. Trump says he's reluctant to sell Ukraine Tomahawk missiles in talks with Zelenskyy - CBC

    Confirms the meeting date, Trump's reluctance, Zelenskyy's drone-for-missile proposition, and the announcement of the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest.

  6. Trump downplays hopes he will supply Ukraine with US missiles after meeting with Zelenskyy - The Guardian

    Provides Trump's quote about stopping at the battle line, the 'claim Victory' post, Putin's warning about Tomahawks damaging relations (via Ushakov), Zelenskyy's quote about needing Tomahawks, and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister's comment on dialogue.

  7. Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy 'realistic' about chances of Tomahawk missile deal - The Guardian

    Details Zelenskyy's 'realistic' comment, his quote about Trump not saying 'no' or 'yes', his call with European leaders (including Sir Keir Starmer), and his initial reaction to the 'stop where we are' proposal.

  8. Ukraine, European Leaders Anxiously Eye Trump-Putin Summit After White House Meeting - RFE/RL

    Confirms the Tomahawk range (2,500km), the timing of the Putin-Trump call (October 16), European anxiety over the summit, and their commitment to a peace plan and sanctions.

  9. What are Tomahawk missiles and why does Ukraine want them? - The Guardian

    Provides technical details on the Tomahawk (type, first use, range of 995 miles/1,600km, speed, size, cost of $1.3m/£1m), its strategic value (deep strike, hundreds of targets), and the land-launched Typhon variant.

  10. With a phone call, Putin appears to change Trump's mind on Ukraine. Again. - The Washington Post

    Details the timing of the Putin-Trump call (Thursday), its effect on Trump's position, Putin's warning about damaging relations, and the diplomatic win for Moscow.

  11. Trump and Putin's ally Viktor Orbán enthuses over planned Ukraine war summit in Hungary - CBS News

    Identifies Viktor Orbán as a Trump ally and one of the few European leaders with ties to Putin, his reaction to the summit, and his 'island of PEACE!' quote.

  12. How Tomahawk missiles could change the war between Russia and Ukraine | CBC News

    Provides Tomahawk range (1,600km), its low-flying capability, and the comparison to ATACMS (300km range).

  13. Would Tomahawk cruise missiles be a game changer for Ukraine? - The Washington Post

    Confirms the Tomahawk's long-range cruise missile type, its ability to evade defences, and the Typhon truck-hauled launcher.

  14. Trump calls for Russia, Ukraine to 'stop where they are' - Defense News

    Provides Trump's 'stop where they are' quote, the agreement to meet in Budapest within two weeks, and Zelenskyy's stress on the need for US security guarantees.

  15. Tomahawk missiles are Trump's ace card for Ukraine – Zelensky says it's time to play it - The Independent

    Confirms the Tomahawk's strategic value (smash command and control, resupply routes) and the 'game-changer' perception.

  16. Orban: Putin–Trump Meeting in Budapest Could Bring Peace - Voennoe Delo

    Provides Viktor Orbán's statement that the summit offers a real chance for peace and his view of Hungary as a facilitator of peace talks.

  17. Could US Tomahawk missiles help Ukraine end the war? - The Week

    Confirms Ukraine's belief that Tomahawks could force Putin into peace talks and the previous administration's reluctance to supply them.

  18. Trump, Putin to meet in Budapest for new Ukraine peace push - The Kyiv Independent

    Confirms the date of the Trump-Putin call (October 16), the agreement to meet in Budapest, the two-and-a-half-hour duration, and the role of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

  19. Viktor Orban responds to Trump-Putin summit in Hungary: 'Island of peace!' - Newsweek

    Confirms the two-hour call, the Budapest summit agreement, and Orbán's 'island of peace!' quote.

  20. Hungary offers to host Putin-Trump summit in Budapest - Yeni Safak English

    Confirms the two-and-a-half-hour call, the agreement for representatives to begin preparations, and Hungary's offer to host.

  21. Trump Reveals Reason Behind Choosing Hungary for Summit with Putin - Hungarian Conservative

    Provides Trump's explanation for choosing Budapest, citing his and Putin's affinity for Viktor Orbán and calling Hungary a 'safe country' and Orbán a 'very good host'.